Resources / Interactive guide
Which feature should go first?
Order changes when value arrives. Model delivery across several streams, then compare what each sequence captures by the same date.
This is a decision aid, not an optimiser. It keeps one-off opportunities separate from recurring monthly earnings.
Try a sequence.
Calculated in your browser. Nothing is stored or sent. Limits: 12 features, 1 to 365 days each, 1 to 8 streams, and a 1 to 3,650-day horizon.
What the model assumes.
The daily returns graph shows the recurring rate earned after each release. Its shaded area is recurring value by the horizon. One-off releases appear as separate markers because they are not daily rates. The cumulative graph shows recurring returns plus one-off value secured. Read its final height, not its area. Both graphs and the schedule use the same time scale; work beyond the comparison horizon remains visible in the muted, unvalued region.
Scheduling
Every feature is ready on day 0. Work is nonpreemptive and each feature uses one stream. The next feature goes to the stream that becomes free first. A lower stream number breaks a tie.
Time
Duration is elapsed whole days at one stream's capacity. It is not person-days divided among streams. More streams add capacity but do not speed up an individual feature.
One-off value
An opportunity contributes its value at completion, based on absolute project time. It contributes nothing before completion and does not accrue again.
Recurring value
Monthly net earnings accrue after completion at monthly value divided by 30. They are zero at the instant of delivery. This model does not decay recurring earnings.
Features finishing after the horizon contribute zero. The total combines modelled one-off value and recurring earnings, so it is modelled value rather than a cash earnings statement.
A small example can reverse intuition.
Feature A takes two days and earns AUD 1,000 a month. Feature B takes four days and earns AUD 3,000 a month. With one stream and a 30-day horizon, A then B captures AUD 3,333.33. B then A captures AUD 3,400. Both finish on day 6, but B loses AUD 100 for every day it waits while A loses about AUD 33.33.
For steady recurring value on one stream where all work completes within the horizon, Cost of Delay divided by duration is a useful ordering signal. It is not a universal rule for deadlines, decaying opportunities, parallel streams or short horizons. Compare complete schedules instead.
Sources and further reading
The value and sequencing ideas draw on Black Swan Farming. The simulator's equations, constraints and examples are original modelling choices.
- Cost of DelayWhy the timing of outcomes changes economic value.
- Four steps to quantifying Cost of DelayA practical route from benefit and urgency to an estimate.
Calculate Cost of Delay first → Shape a one-off opportunity →